Local variations in crime seasonality

Matt Ashby

Crime seasonality

  • Crimes vary seasonally
  • Seasonality related to activity patterns
  • Many types peak in summer
  • Seasonality might vary spatially

But …

  • Little spatial disaggregation
  • Modifiable temporal unit problem
  • Seasonal analysis needs circular statistics
  • Few inferential statistics

This project

  • disaggregate data from multiple cities
  • no temporal aggregation
  • inferential tests for circular data

Some tentative conclusions

  • Seasonality more consistent across crime types than within cities
  • Peak is often neither ‘summer’ or ‘winter’
  • Most neighbourhoods have similar seasonality, with (interesting) outliers

Thanks!

Twitter: @lesscrime

These slides: lesscrime.info/presentations/esc-2018